If you place wagers on US sports, then chances are high that you've heard of point spreads. Here's how they work; if a game has Patriots -9.0 and Vikings +9.0, the Patriots are 9.0 point favorites and the Vikings are 9.0 point underdogs. Unless otherwise stated, no matter which team you bet on, you'll be required to risk $1.10 for each $1.00 you want to win. For Patriots bettors to prevail, they need their team to win by 10 or more points. A 9-point Patriot victory would be a push (a tie). For Vikings bettors to take home the victory, they need to either win the game or lose by less than 9 points.
Points Betting is a unique sports betting option available only at PointsBet Sportsbook (currently in New Jersey and Iowa). This kind of point spread wager is based on the margin of victory or loss and can be very volatile, depending on how much risk a bettor wants to take on a game.
Point spreads are used since most recreational bettors prefer to wager even money propositions. In the above example, if there was no point spread, only moneyline betting would exist. So, if odds makers are giving the New England Patriots a 73% chance of winning a game, then in order to take bets and still have a small profit margin, the bookmaker would have no choice but to require Patriot bettors to stake $3.00 or more for each $1.00 they want to win.
Rule 2—I Will Never Bet to Show. Show betting is one of the worst mistakes a bettor can make. The return on a show bet is usually so horribly small that the bettor must win many show bets in a row to make a profit. Therefore, the second rule of a mathematical system is to never make a show bet. The Point Differential System can take up a lot of time to execute but it is also one of the most accurate systems out there when it comes to breaking down the offensive and defensive strengths of a team and a representative number that helps compare them against the rest of the league. Sep 12, 2014 The Point Differential System can take up a lot of time to execute but it is also one of the most accurate systems out there when it comes to breaking down the offensive and defensive strengths of a team and a representative number that helps compare them against the rest of the league. May 11, 2019 When it comes to NFL betting systems, the Point Differential System is one of the most time-consuming, but also one of the most accurate when trying to gauge the relative offensive and defensive strength of a particular team.
With a point spread, the odds are balanced, so you usually have to risk just $1.10 to win $1.00. This makes the point spreads appealing to recreational bettors, who often think it's easy to make money from them. We have to be honest with you; it's NOT easy, but it IS possible. The strategy we cover in this article should help!
/GettyImages-856106476-611ddc945c3242688b2c7b0ed01f15de.jpg "Betting Points System")
We've provided a brief explanation of point spreads in our introduction here, but if you'd like to know more about this type of wager then please read our beginner's guide to betting point spreads.
Simple Tips for Point Spread Betting
Strategy for betting point spreads is obviously different for each sport and league, but these four tips are general enough to apply to them all.
- Take Advantage of Bonus Offers
- Use Multiple Betting Sites
- Be Careful of Road Favorites
- Understand Key Numbers
Let's go over each of these tips in a little more detail.
Take Advantage of Bonus Offers
One way to make money from sports betting is to open an account at an online betting site and take advantage of their sign up bonus. This gives you extra money to wager with, and since point spreads are so straightforward, it can be relatively easy to meet the associated wagering requirements and still come out ahead. Repeating this process at multiple betting sites will maximize your potential returns! We just ask that you please stick with reputable sites, like any of the ones that we recommend.
Use Multiple Betting Sites
We already mentioned how using multiple betting sites allows you to take advantage of multiple bonus offers. That's not the only benefit either. Since point spreads vary between sites, one of the best ways to beat these wagers is to compare the different spreads in order to find which one is the most favorable. This doesn't take nearly as long as you might think, and it will make a huge difference to your bottom line over time.
Let's take a hypothetical game between the Buffalo Bills and the New England Patriots as an example. One site might have the spread as follows.
Another site might offer a slightly different spread.
If you're betting in favor of the Patriots, then you should be betting with Bookmaker A. If the Patriots win by more than seven points, then you'll win with either bookmaker. However, if they win by exactly seven points, you'll lose with Bookmaker B. With Bookmaker A, you'll push and get your stake returned.
On the other hand, if you're betting on the Bills, then Bookmaker B will be your best option. A Bills loss of exactly seven points would be a push at Bookmaker A, but it would be a win for you at Bookmaker B.
It's only a half-point difference, and that might not seem like a lot. The bookmakers tend to be very accurate with their spreads though, and an extra half-point in your favor can easily add up to extra profits over time.
Be Careful of Road Favorites
Many novice bettors fail to understand the impact of home advantage when wagering on sport events. When looking at the board for potential wagers, these bettors tend to get excited and bet on lots of superior teams favored on the road against weaker opponents. The betting market is so much more advanced than this, and for the most part point spreads are always going to be 50/50 propositions.
Please NoteWe're not saying that you should never bet on road favorites. Just make sure that you have good reasons to do so. Keep in mind; they don't just need to win, they need to win by a greater margin than the spread suggests they will.
Understand Key Numbers
Betting Points System Rankings
While understanding key numbers is beneficial for betting point spreads on any sport, key numbers are known for having the most significance in football. In NFL football, most games are decided by three or seven points. Therefore, when shopping the odds, the difference between -7.0 and -6.5 is far greater than the difference between -5.5 and -5.0.
With some betting sites odds, certain games are priced differently than risking $1.10 to win $1.00 (which is called -110 odds). For example, you might see the Giants priced at -105 and +7 in a game against the Jets. Now, you only have to risk $1.05 to win $1.00. This is obviously better odds, but it's very likely that they will lose by exactly seven to give you a push. Taking -110 and +7.5 with an alternative bookmaker is actually the better bet.
Getting your head around these kind of intricacies, as well as knowing the relevant key numbers, is vital if you want to bet on the point spreads successfully.
Now that we've got the basic tips covered, we want to provide you with some point spread betting tips specific to two of the most popular US sports: football and basketball.
Point Spread Betting in Football
One of the best ways to beat football point spread betting is to use teasers. A teaser is a form of a parlay bet using modified point spreads. Each point spread you select is moved 6 points in your favor. For example, let's say you're interested in betting on the following.
Yards Per Point Betting System
A teaser would give you a single wager with the following spreads.
Each selection is obviously easier to get right with the spread moved in your favor, but you do have to get all three correct in order for your wager to win.
Recommended ReadingIf you want to learn how to beat this form of wagering, you'll definitely want to read our article on betting football teasers.
Another way to beat football point spreads is to shop for off market prices. For example, let's say you're shopping online betting sites and see every site is offering Vikings +7.0. Then, you stumble upon one site that's offering +7.5. There's a good chance that this is a +EV wager, simply because it is out of sync with every other site. Please note that this strategy isn't quite the same as simply shopping for the best lines. Here, you're specifically looking for wagers that are +EV because they're against the market.
It's also important to consider whether or not there's any correlation between the point spread and the betting total. If they are, a parlay wager is a good way to get maximum value. For example, a college football point spread +24.5 parlayed with under 48 points in the same game might be a great parlay bet. If the +24.5 team covers the point spread, then there's an increased chance that the game also goes under the posted total of 48.
Finally, you might want to think about learning the correct strategies for buying half-points in football. While many people are against this method, we're here to tell you that there are some circumstances where buying points can be profitable.
Point Spread Betting in Basketball
Buying half points is a strategy that can work for basketball too. Most online betting sites offer bettors the ability to purchase half-points at 10 cents each. Let's say the Lakers are -6.5 at odds of -110 for example. Here of some of the options you can expect to see.
A great strategy for betting basketball point spreads is to shop dozens of betting sites for the best line, and then purchase as many half points as possible (provided they are priced 10 cents each).
When using this strategy, it's helpful to know the most common margins of victory in NBA basketball and how often they occur.
This information shows us that nearly half the games finish with one of the eight point margins listed, and this isn't the result of variance. Some margins of victory occur more frequently than others because of end game strategy. The winning team is often found running the clock, while the losing team if often found intentionally fouling.
The key here is to target the point spread five and seven, because these are virtually tied as the most common margins of victory. It's important to recognize that most betting sites are only willing to sell 2 or 3 half points for 10 cents each, after which point they start charging more. Some sites sell up to four half points at this price though.
To show how this can be exploited, take a point spread of -8.5 at odds of -110. This is a 50/50 proposition. Let's assume you've purchased enough points to move the spread to -6.5 at odds of -150. Now, you'd win instead of lose 6.24% of the time they win by 8, and 6.59% of the time they win by 7. Add these together with the 50% from the original proposition, and we get 62.83%.
Betting Points System Rankings
Go to our odds converter, and you'll see that the implied probability of -150 is 60%. This means you need to win 60% of the time to break even. However, our handicapping shows the actual probability of winning is 62.38%.
If we risked $150 to win $100 on this -150 line, 62.38% of the time we would win $100. And 37.62% of the time we would lose $150. This gives us an expected profit of $5.95 for every $150 risked.
WarningIf you only make large +EV bets such as the basketball example above, betting sites will limit the amount you're allowed to wager. It's not uncommon for online bookmakers to spot a skilled bettor and say, 'Okay you can keep wagering here, but the maximum you're allowed to bet per game is $500.00.'
If you keep betting and winning, they might decrease your limits even further. That's why we recommend trying to hide the fact that you're so sharp. By placing some random wagers and occasionally spending some time at their casino, you'll have a much better chance of staying under the radar.
This is also another good reason for using multiple sites. Since there are so many different reputable betting sites to choose from, it would take you a long time to get limited at every single one of them.
Sponsored Post
Points Based Staking: Beginner to Winner
Horse racing wagering is an easy way to add even more excitement to the celebrated sport of kings, but while casually picking winners based on trivial factors such as a catchy name or attractive racing colors can yield a lucky break once in a while, consistently making money from these wagers requires sticking to a defined points based staking system.
A points based staking system is a methodical ranking process that can show a given horse's likelihood of victory in a race based on past performance, present track conditions and the competing field, and working with such a system can greatly increase your odds of picking winners over time.
My Winners: Easy Point System for Horse Racing Wagering
Managing your Investment
Successfully generating a profit over time from horse racing wagers requires a fairly substantial initial investment of staking money. This wagering pot is then divided up into points, and determines how much you have to stake on each bet. Managing your investment judiciously is critical to sustained profits, as even a winning bet can end up losing money in the long run by choosing an unprofitable wager. The most successful bettors are known as professional handicappers, and they work to find the most profitable bets while minimizing their losses on unlikely wagers.
Handicapping horse races begins with an examination of the various factors that go into winning a race, which allows a calculation of the appropriate amount to place on a bet. This calculation starts with 100, or all of your staking pot, but horse racing tracks typically collect a portion of all wagers placed on the day to cover track expenses. This fee is known to insiders as the 'vig,' and as the typical rate is 20 percent, most calculation systems in widespread use, start at 80.
Next, the 80 can be divided by the size of the field to show how much each factor will determine the winner of the race. For example, an event with an 8-horse field would render an equation of 80 divided by 8, equaling 10. This figure can then be converted to a percentage, making each factor worth 10 percent, or a 'unit' for handicapping purposes.
Nfl Betting Point Spreads
Factors
We've provided a brief explanation of point spreads in our introduction here, but if you'd like to know more about this type of wager then please read our beginner's guide to betting point spreads.
Simple Tips for Point Spread Betting
Strategy for betting point spreads is obviously different for each sport and league, but these four tips are general enough to apply to them all.
- Take Advantage of Bonus Offers
- Use Multiple Betting Sites
- Be Careful of Road Favorites
- Understand Key Numbers
Let's go over each of these tips in a little more detail.
Take Advantage of Bonus Offers
One way to make money from sports betting is to open an account at an online betting site and take advantage of their sign up bonus. This gives you extra money to wager with, and since point spreads are so straightforward, it can be relatively easy to meet the associated wagering requirements and still come out ahead. Repeating this process at multiple betting sites will maximize your potential returns! We just ask that you please stick with reputable sites, like any of the ones that we recommend.
Use Multiple Betting Sites
We already mentioned how using multiple betting sites allows you to take advantage of multiple bonus offers. That's not the only benefit either. Since point spreads vary between sites, one of the best ways to beat these wagers is to compare the different spreads in order to find which one is the most favorable. This doesn't take nearly as long as you might think, and it will make a huge difference to your bottom line over time.
Let's take a hypothetical game between the Buffalo Bills and the New England Patriots as an example. One site might have the spread as follows.
Another site might offer a slightly different spread.
If you're betting in favor of the Patriots, then you should be betting with Bookmaker A. If the Patriots win by more than seven points, then you'll win with either bookmaker. However, if they win by exactly seven points, you'll lose with Bookmaker B. With Bookmaker A, you'll push and get your stake returned.
On the other hand, if you're betting on the Bills, then Bookmaker B will be your best option. A Bills loss of exactly seven points would be a push at Bookmaker A, but it would be a win for you at Bookmaker B.
It's only a half-point difference, and that might not seem like a lot. The bookmakers tend to be very accurate with their spreads though, and an extra half-point in your favor can easily add up to extra profits over time.
Be Careful of Road Favorites
Many novice bettors fail to understand the impact of home advantage when wagering on sport events. When looking at the board for potential wagers, these bettors tend to get excited and bet on lots of superior teams favored on the road against weaker opponents. The betting market is so much more advanced than this, and for the most part point spreads are always going to be 50/50 propositions.
Please NoteWe're not saying that you should never bet on road favorites. Just make sure that you have good reasons to do so. Keep in mind; they don't just need to win, they need to win by a greater margin than the spread suggests they will.
Understand Key Numbers
Betting Points System Rankings
While understanding key numbers is beneficial for betting point spreads on any sport, key numbers are known for having the most significance in football. In NFL football, most games are decided by three or seven points. Therefore, when shopping the odds, the difference between -7.0 and -6.5 is far greater than the difference between -5.5 and -5.0.
With some betting sites odds, certain games are priced differently than risking $1.10 to win $1.00 (which is called -110 odds). For example, you might see the Giants priced at -105 and +7 in a game against the Jets. Now, you only have to risk $1.05 to win $1.00. This is obviously better odds, but it's very likely that they will lose by exactly seven to give you a push. Taking -110 and +7.5 with an alternative bookmaker is actually the better bet.
Getting your head around these kind of intricacies, as well as knowing the relevant key numbers, is vital if you want to bet on the point spreads successfully.
Now that we've got the basic tips covered, we want to provide you with some point spread betting tips specific to two of the most popular US sports: football and basketball.
Point Spread Betting in Football
One of the best ways to beat football point spread betting is to use teasers. A teaser is a form of a parlay bet using modified point spreads. Each point spread you select is moved 6 points in your favor. For example, let's say you're interested in betting on the following.
Yards Per Point Betting System
A teaser would give you a single wager with the following spreads.
Each selection is obviously easier to get right with the spread moved in your favor, but you do have to get all three correct in order for your wager to win.
Recommended ReadingIf you want to learn how to beat this form of wagering, you'll definitely want to read our article on betting football teasers.
Another way to beat football point spreads is to shop for off market prices. For example, let's say you're shopping online betting sites and see every site is offering Vikings +7.0. Then, you stumble upon one site that's offering +7.5. There's a good chance that this is a +EV wager, simply because it is out of sync with every other site. Please note that this strategy isn't quite the same as simply shopping for the best lines. Here, you're specifically looking for wagers that are +EV because they're against the market.
It's also important to consider whether or not there's any correlation between the point spread and the betting total. If they are, a parlay wager is a good way to get maximum value. For example, a college football point spread +24.5 parlayed with under 48 points in the same game might be a great parlay bet. If the +24.5 team covers the point spread, then there's an increased chance that the game also goes under the posted total of 48.
Finally, you might want to think about learning the correct strategies for buying half-points in football. While many people are against this method, we're here to tell you that there are some circumstances where buying points can be profitable.
Point Spread Betting in Basketball
Buying half points is a strategy that can work for basketball too. Most online betting sites offer bettors the ability to purchase half-points at 10 cents each. Let's say the Lakers are -6.5 at odds of -110 for example. Here of some of the options you can expect to see.
A great strategy for betting basketball point spreads is to shop dozens of betting sites for the best line, and then purchase as many half points as possible (provided they are priced 10 cents each).
When using this strategy, it's helpful to know the most common margins of victory in NBA basketball and how often they occur.
This information shows us that nearly half the games finish with one of the eight point margins listed, and this isn't the result of variance. Some margins of victory occur more frequently than others because of end game strategy. The winning team is often found running the clock, while the losing team if often found intentionally fouling.
The key here is to target the point spread five and seven, because these are virtually tied as the most common margins of victory. It's important to recognize that most betting sites are only willing to sell 2 or 3 half points for 10 cents each, after which point they start charging more. Some sites sell up to four half points at this price though.
To show how this can be exploited, take a point spread of -8.5 at odds of -110. This is a 50/50 proposition. Let's assume you've purchased enough points to move the spread to -6.5 at odds of -150. Now, you'd win instead of lose 6.24% of the time they win by 8, and 6.59% of the time they win by 7. Add these together with the 50% from the original proposition, and we get 62.83%.
Betting Points System Rankings
Go to our odds converter, and you'll see that the implied probability of -150 is 60%. This means you need to win 60% of the time to break even. However, our handicapping shows the actual probability of winning is 62.38%.
If we risked $150 to win $100 on this -150 line, 62.38% of the time we would win $100. And 37.62% of the time we would lose $150. This gives us an expected profit of $5.95 for every $150 risked.
WarningIf you only make large +EV bets such as the basketball example above, betting sites will limit the amount you're allowed to wager. It's not uncommon for online bookmakers to spot a skilled bettor and say, 'Okay you can keep wagering here, but the maximum you're allowed to bet per game is $500.00.'
If you keep betting and winning, they might decrease your limits even further. That's why we recommend trying to hide the fact that you're so sharp. By placing some random wagers and occasionally spending some time at their casino, you'll have a much better chance of staying under the radar.
This is also another good reason for using multiple sites. Since there are so many different reputable betting sites to choose from, it would take you a long time to get limited at every single one of them.
Sponsored Post
Points Based Staking: Beginner to Winner
Horse racing wagering is an easy way to add even more excitement to the celebrated sport of kings, but while casually picking winners based on trivial factors such as a catchy name or attractive racing colors can yield a lucky break once in a while, consistently making money from these wagers requires sticking to a defined points based staking system.
A points based staking system is a methodical ranking process that can show a given horse's likelihood of victory in a race based on past performance, present track conditions and the competing field, and working with such a system can greatly increase your odds of picking winners over time.
My Winners: Easy Point System for Horse Racing Wagering
Managing your Investment
Successfully generating a profit over time from horse racing wagers requires a fairly substantial initial investment of staking money. This wagering pot is then divided up into points, and determines how much you have to stake on each bet. Managing your investment judiciously is critical to sustained profits, as even a winning bet can end up losing money in the long run by choosing an unprofitable wager. The most successful bettors are known as professional handicappers, and they work to find the most profitable bets while minimizing their losses on unlikely wagers.
Handicapping horse races begins with an examination of the various factors that go into winning a race, which allows a calculation of the appropriate amount to place on a bet. This calculation starts with 100, or all of your staking pot, but horse racing tracks typically collect a portion of all wagers placed on the day to cover track expenses. This fee is known to insiders as the 'vig,' and as the typical rate is 20 percent, most calculation systems in widespread use, start at 80.
Next, the 80 can be divided by the size of the field to show how much each factor will determine the winner of the race. For example, an event with an 8-horse field would render an equation of 80 divided by 8, equaling 10. This figure can then be converted to a percentage, making each factor worth 10 percent, or a 'unit' for handicapping purposes.
Nfl Betting Point Spreads
Factors
Horse racing is known for its exciting and unpredictable finishes, but the vast majority of horse races can be narrowed down to a few true contenders long before the starting gun by considering the abilities of each horse. An evaluation for handicapping purposes starts with finding the class horse, which is calculated by dividing the horse's yearly winnings by the number of races won if it has had 5 races or more, and the winnings by the number of starts for horses with less races. The horse with the highest winnings per start average is the class of the field and receives a unit.
The next most important factor is consistency, which is determined by dividing the number of starts by the wins accumulated over the year. Jockey winning percentage and trainer winning percentage are also highly indicative factors of a horse's chances at the victory circle, each worth a ranking unit on their own. Speed ratings are commonly used to measure the capabilities of horses, but where they are unavailable the horse with the fastest time on the surface of the day and at the current race distance receives the unit. Also factored in is the horse's last racing performance, with the most impressive display receiving a unit in the factoring process.
After determining the influence of central factors for each horse in the race, percentages can be assigned to each runner. The class horse of the race receives a 10 percent ranking bonus, and the factors are tallied to give each horse a projected chance at winning, shown as a percentage. These percentages can then be converted into fractions, meaning that a horse with a 50 percent ranking would win races roughly half the time.
Favorable Odds
From this point, ensuring a profit on horse racing wagers is done by taking advantage of favorable odds. For a horse ranked at 50 percent, any wager set to pay more than $4 for every $2 wagered represents a profitable bet, and as the odds constantly change leading up to the race, savvy bettors watch the odds carefully until the last minute before placing a wager guaranteed to show a profit as a winning bet.
Wagering on horse races is one of the oldest forms of public entertainment, and handicapping horses is a way to turn the fortunes of the day in your favor. There are many effective horse ranking systems that help horse racing enthusiasts gain an edge, and understanding the basics of how it's done can help you devise your own advanced system and achieve even more consistent success.
Show Betting System
For more information about the upcoming horse racing events in the US, visit the sports and horse race betting hub https://www.mywinners.com/ for all the latest information and if you're feeling lucky, you could even place the odd bet or two.
